The Reds could be a surprise team in 2010, if it wasn't for the fact that they are managed by Dusty Baker, who is perhaps the worst possible manager a team full of young and promising players could have. With Votto, Bruce, Cueto, the injured Volquez, and the newly-arrived Chapman, the Reds have the nucleus of a potentially powerful team in the NL Central. However, the Reds are also perennial underachievers. Even if Jay Bruce bounces back to have the kind of year he is capable of, I still don't see how this team will win consistently. Harang is on the downslope of his career, as evidenced by his 2009 year (6-14). It's never a good sign when your 'ace' pitcher loses 14 games. Arroyo is the de facto ace of this staff, winning 15 games for a poor team last season. Cueto remains an enigma, Bailey a disappointment, and it remains to be seen if Chapman will make the kind of impact he is capable of or if Dusty Baker will ruin yet another young pitcher. Cordero was excellent in the closer's role last year, but the bullpen will have trouble giving him leads. The bench is thin, and the Reds don't have the resources to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals.
All in all, the Reds could make a run at .500. Baker seems to manage at his best when he has no realistic expectations to win, so perhaps this is the year where the Reds' young players put it all together. That being said, I still feel as if the Reds and Brewers will battle it out for third place in the Central.
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