Most sportswriters have tagged the Cardinals as runaway favorites in the Central. They are the defending champs, and retained the one piece that they really needed in Holliday as protection for Pujols. However, 2009 was one of those years where nearly everything went right for the Cardinals. They had no major injuries to any of their cornerstone players - Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, and Carpenter all stayed healthy, and still *ONLY* won 91 games. Ninety-one wins is enough to capture a relatively weak NL Central in 2009, but with the Cubs and Brewers both making significant strides, it seems the Cardinals are awfully thin this year. Carpenter is injury-prone, and a serious injury to him puts the Cardinals' season in jeopardy. Wainwright had a fantastic 2009, but beyond him the rotation gets a bit iffy. Kyle Lohse was patently awful in 2009. Garcia is a 27-year-old rookie coming off Tommy John surgery in 2008. Brad Penny was taken behind the woodshed in the AL before righting the ship with the Giants in 2009. Which Brad Penny shows up in 2010 will be a big factor for the Cardinals - can he replace Piniero, who won 15 games for them in 2009? The Cardinals do boast a powerful lineup, and that will certainly be the strength of the 2010 team. However, beyond Felipe Lopez, the Cardinals have a thin bench. Should Pujols or Holliday go down, this is a team in real trouble. The bullpen is also a major question. While Franklin had a fantastic year as closer in 2009, his 2009 stats are so far outside his career averages that I feel 2009 was an outlier. McClellan, Motte, Reyes, and Thompson do not exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing batters, although Reyes and McClellan were very good in 2009.
All things considered, I think the Cardinals are a solid team and a wild-card contender. However, I don't see them being as strong as a healthy Cubs club, nor as deep in the starting pitching. This is still a team capable of winning 80-85 games (perhaps a few more), and definitely challenging for the NL Wild Card.
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