As a Cubs fan, I feel it necessary to start with the NL Central. Following is my anticipated order of finish and a team-by-team write-up will follow that.
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Milwaukee
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh
Chicago Cubs
Yes, 2009 was a hugely disappointing year for Cubs fans, especially after the incredible regular season run in 2008. Entering 2010, it seems to me that the Cubs have solved most of the problems that plagued them last year. First, the closer situation. Kevin Gregg is gone (finally!), and Marmol was perfect last year once he became the official closer. He has the nastiest stuff in the National League - period. If he remedies the control issues that have plagued him at times, he could easily save 45+ games. Going into the season knowing the job is his, Marmol should be much more comfortable and I see this as an encouraging sign for a fantastic season. Secondly, the much-discussed Milton Bradley is gone. Even without insider access, the body language of the 2009 Cubs was markedly different from the 2008 team, and I attribute much of this to the presence of Bradley. Bradley infuriated Piniella, and became such a distraction that he dragged down much of the rest of the team. Performance-wise, Bradley was equally dismal. The subtraction of Bradley (and the addition of Marlon Byrd, who is by all accounts a fantastic clubhouse guy) bodes well for the Cubs. My third point is injuries. The 2009 Cubs were absolutely decimated by injuries. Piniella was able to field his intended starting lineup for 3 games. While there are no guarantees as far as injuries go, the 2010 Cubs seem to be a much healthier bunch. LHP Ted Lilly's rehab is ahead of schedule and it appears he will return in mid- to late-April. Aramis Ramirez should be available for 150+ games, and he is the key bat in the Cubs' lineup. Sans Ramirez, the onus of run production fell on Derrek Lee, who still had a monster year but it was not good enough to push the Cubs into the playoffs. Soriano is also back to 100%. While he may not be the 40/40 guy he was with Washington, he is still poised for a comeback year, in my opinion. Geovanny Soto is another Cub who appears ready for a bounceback year after a dismal 2009. This spring, Soto returned much lighter and more agile, and hopefully this will help him stay healthy and productive over the 2010 season. The pitching staff also seems to be in good shape. Zambrano, like Soto, showed up in the best shape of his career. Dempster has had a fantastic spring and his two years as a Cubs starter have been excellent. Lilly has been the best Cubs pitcher during his time in the rotation, and he should be ready to win another 14-16 games this year. Carlos Silva, the pitcher acquired for Milton Bradley, seems much more at ease in Chicago and his spring has been very encouraging. Good sinkerballers always bode well in Wrigley, and if Silva recaptures the success he had with the Minnesota Twins he could also win 12-14 games.
My major concerns with the Cubs are two-fold. First, the bullpen is relatively inexperienced. Caridad did well last year after he was called to the Majors, but it remains to be seen how he will hold up over a full season and how he will do once teams get in-depth scouting reports on him. Samardzija needs to return to his 2008 form, although I feel he is best suited in a set-up role with his hard fastball, good slider and adequate split. Hopefully starting this year with the club will help him get situated quicker and gain confidence in his stuff. Marshall gives the Cubs a lot of flexibility out of the pen and has been very solid for the Cubs over the last few years. One potential hurdle in the bullpen is finding a pitcher who can consistently retire left-handers. Grabow is the odd lefty who excels against right-handed batters, so the Cubs would do well to find a LHP to face the Ryan Howards of the NL. By all accounts Jim Hendry is actively searching for bullpen help, so this concern may be alleviated either before or soon after the regular season begins. My second concern is infield depth and bench play. Tyler Colvin has had a magnificent spring, but still has negligible experience against major-league pitching. Xavier Nady is out for probably the first month or so of the season, at least for defensive purposes. Jeff Baker is the super-utility guy. While he has proven himself to be a servicable major-league infielder, he is not a substitute should Lee or Ramirez be sidelined for any significant period of time. Starlin Castro is waiting in the wings, however, and should contribute to the club in 2010.
All this being said, I have a good vibe about the 2010 Cubs. Nearly everything that could go wrong did in 2009, and the Cubs have addressed most of the problems that they could have during the offseason. With healthy starting pitching and the meat of the lineup returning to form, this is a Cubs team that could win 90-95 games. Even with injuries decimating the 2009 Cubs, they still managed to win 83 games and stayed within shouting distance of the Cardinals (who remained extraordinarily healthy all year long) until the final weeks of the season. A healthy Aramis Ramirez adds 50-60 RBIs on to his production from last year, and that translates into crucial wins. Also, as ESPN's Buster Olney noted, the Cubs have an extraordinarily easy schedule to open the season. Should the Cubs take care of business in the first few weeks of the season, they could force the rest of the NL Central to play catch-up throughout the summer.
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