Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Suggestions for Improving MLB

Baseball is, in my humble opinion, the best professional sport and the quintessential American game. However, modern baseball can be improved significantly - the following opinions are my nine suggestions for improving the game.

1). Allow the game to police itself. One thing I am very tired of is having suits in the front offices decide what constitutes an offense in the game. While the pendulum inevitably swings between favoring offense and favoring pitching, depending on what era one is in, the pendulum has recently swung far beyond what should be acceptable in professional baseball. For example, pitchers today are rarely allowed to throw inside effectively without umpires jumping the gun and issuing unnecessary warnings, which effectively handcuffs pitchers. To be clear, I'm not advocating headhunting. However, effective pitchers need to control the inside part of the plate and instill a healthy sense of fear in the batter. Today, if pitchers go inside they are often warned at the umpire's discretion . That is a key phrase: at the umpire's discretion. In recent years, umpires have issued warnings that make absolutely no sense. A couple of years ago in Atlanta, a player hit three HRs off Atlanta pitching. In the first inning of the next game, the player was knocked down by an inside fastball. The very next inning, the opposing starter immediately knocked down the first batter he faced and was promptly ejected. Um, WHAT? These are the kinds of things that make no sense in baseball today. Allow pitchers to protect their teammates, ensure that any player who is disrespecting the game or showing up another player has to face the consequences, and the game will become much more exciting and equitable. If you stand and admire a HR, just know that the next pitch will be right in the middle of your back. That's how baseball was, and that's how it should be. Players know what is acceptable and what isn't, and let them decide what needs to be punished, when, and how.

2). Eliminate the DH. This goes along, in some aspects, with my first point about policing the game. American League pitchers can go inside as much as they want knowing that they will never have to face retribution by not having to bat. The DH came about as a gimmick to increase attendance in an era where pitching dominated (if I remember correctly, the DH came about the year after Carl Yastrzemski won the batting title with a .302 average). Bring back the strategy involved with pitchers hitting - bunting, hitting the ball to the correct field, and so on.

3). Eliminate the All-Star Game deciding home-field advantage in the World Series. This is ridiculous. Having an exhibition game determine something as important as home-field advantage is an affront to the regular season. This was also a gimmick brought about by the fact that Bud Selig allowed the All-Star Game to end in a tie a few years ago. As Selig usually does, he completely overreacted and now a game that is meant as a showcase for the players and a treat for the fans, where Little League rules seem to apply (managers try to get everybody to play; every team gets a player on the team, et cetera), now has an immense effect on who wins the World Series. The team with the best regular season record gets home-field advantage in the World Series. Period.

4). Institute a meaningful salary cap. While I am diametrically opposed to the realignment idea, the reasoning behind such a drastic suggestion is rooted in a real concern. Some teams are always going to be richer than other, and some teams are always going to be more liberal with their free-agent spending. That's a fact of professional sports that isn't limited to MLB. The luxury tax is a good first step, but I don't think it goes far enough. I'm not sure what a fair cap would be in financial terms, but teams shouldn't be allowed to spend $423.5 million on free agents in one offseason as the Yankees did in 2008. One way to minimize the "Yankee Impact" could be to require that a team spends a certain percentage of its payroll on the farm system and player development. While that wouldn't necessarily curtail the emphasis on free agency, it would force teams to develop talent rather than simply pillage the smaller market teams. Connected with this idea, a minimum payroll should also be instituted. From time to time some teams will have to go into rebuilding mode with a small payroll, but situations like the Marlins' firesales in 1998 and 2004 should be outlawed.

5). Toughen drug testing. One thing MLB has done well over the past few years, although they were extremely slow in addressing the problem, has been to implement a stringent drug-testing policy with severe consequences. I'd like to see still tougher policies, though - one positive test means a year suspension, and a second positive test means you're out of the game. Forever.

6). Return the Brewers to the American League. It's absolutely unbelievable that Bud Selig was able to get away with moving the Brewers, the team he used to own to the NL Central - where he thought they'd be more competitive. While this has not proven to be the case, it has upset the balance of the AL and NL. There is, simply put, no reason for the NL Central to have 6 teams and the AL West 4. My solution would be to move the Royals to the AL West and return the Brewers to the AL Central. While it's tough to imagine Kansas City as a western city, it's only slightly further east than Arlington, where the Rangers play. Following these steps would give every Major League division 5 teams and interleague play would still allow these geographical rivalries to develop.

7). Sanction baseball academies in Latin America. One of the most stomach-turning moments in recent memory was the story coming out of Washington where the GM or the GM's assistant was pocketing bonus money supposedly ticketed for Latin American recruits who had signed with the team. By sanctioning academies in Latin America, MLB can ensure that young prospects - some of who are signed when they are 16 years old, perhaps even younger - are not exploited.

8). Enhance programs like R.B.I. The Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities (RBI) program is one of the better programs MLB has created in recent years. Ensure that MLB players, especially African-American and Latino players, serve as community liaisons with their home cities.

9). Eliminate maple bats. If you've watched any baseball in the past few years, you may have noticed that more and more players are using maple bats. MLB actually broached this subject in 2006 but the players shouted down the suggestion. The fact of the matter is that maple bats shatter, while ash - the traditional wood used for bats - cracks. A few years ago Rick Helling, a former major league pitcher, was impaled by a maple bat which had shattered while pitching for the minor-league Nashville Sounds. It is only a matter of time before a maple bat shatters and hits a fan, especially in parks where fans are particularly close to the action (such as Wrigley Field or Fenway Park). Maple bats need to be outlawed before a fan or player is seriously injured or killed.

Cubs' Roster Finalized; Williams to be Immortalized with Statue at Wrigley

2010 Roster Preview

The 2010 Cubs' roster is set, and it looks to be a heady mix of veterans and rookies. Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Silva, and Gorzellany will begin as the starting 5, and Silva or Wells will likely head to the bullpen once Ted Lilly returns from offseason surgery in mid-to-late April. If these starters stay healthy, the Cubs have the deepest rotation in the NL Central. Zambrano and Dempster are both very capable of winning 17 - 18 games; Wells is coming off a stellar rookie campaign in which he won 12 games; and Silva and Gorzellany have both proven to be effective major league pitchers in the past. Silva in particular is an interesting case. He has been inconsistent in Arizona, tabulating an ERA of 4.96, yet that may be in part due to the thin Arizona air which is affecting his sinker and change-up. In Chicago in April, hitting off of Silva may be similar to hitting a bowling ball. Another good sign is that he's only walked two batters - if he pitches to contact and keeps the ball down, I think he could be in line for a solid season. Gorzellany has posted a 3.32 ERA in 4 spring starts and batters are hitting a measly .225 against him, but he has walked 9 batters. If he keeps the ball in the strike zone, he could return to 2007 form when he won 14 games on an abysmal Pittsburgh team. He matches up well against other 5th starters in the NL and he could win some games for us in April.

The bullpen - along with whether or not the Cubs can stay healthy - is the major challenge facing this Cubs team. I feel Marmol is set for a monster year, but the bridge to Marmol could be interesting. Grabow hasn't particularly impressed in spring, but Esmailin Caridad has been phenomenal - he hasn't given up an earned run in 11 spring innings, striking out 10 and walking only 1. He was equally devastating as a late-season call up in the major last season, so Caridad may be Marmol v. 2.0 as a set-up guy this year. Samardzija, Marshall, Berg, and Russell round out the bullpen. The Cubs' bullpen possesses a talented stable of arms capable of bringing it in the mid- to high-90s - as they always seem to have - but control and consistency remains a question. The other big question is whether or not the Cubs can find a consistent left-handed arm behind Sean Marshall.

I really like the offense this year as well. Everyone is healthy, and the spring has been uneventful by Cubs' standards (always a good thing). Ramirez is still sore, but by all accounts will be 100% for 5 April. Soriano, Byrd, and Fukudome should be a solid defensive outfield when you include Soriano's arm (the NL has learned not to run on him, despite his adventures at times with the glove). Colvin has torn the cover off the ball all spring, and can play any outfield position. Nady is a veteran bat and presence off the bench. As for the infield, Fontenot has hit well this spring, Theriot is doing what he always does, and Lee and Ramirez are set for another .300/25/90 apiece. I was disappointed Millar didn't make the team; it seems he was great for the clubhouse and totally revamped the chemistry after the Bradley disaster. However, this is the major leagues - with only 25 roster spots it's hard to reserve a roster spot for a 'chemstry guy' who probably wouldn't add all that much off of the bench. Tracy and Baker are able fill-ins and decent bats off the bench. Should Soto bounce back, the Cubs could have a very dangerous lineup in the NL Central.

The farm also has some candidates who seem ready to perform should injuries once again wrack this team. Starlin Castro will likely see some time this summer, although the Cubs need to figure out whether he or Theriot will move to second should Fontenot not perform. Jay Jackson (a fellow Furman University grad!) struck out 72 and walking only 13 in 50 innings of work (and with a 2.88 ERA) while moving through three levels of the minors last year. The Cubs needs to figure out whether Cashner is a SP or RP, and once his role is set he should become more comfortable. Josh Vitters is still very young but could make serious strides this year as well.

All in all, I'm optimistic for this season. I don't buy the common opinion that the Cardinals are far and away the best team in this division. They can mash, sure, but I think overall the Cubs are a much more balanced team should they stay healthy. However, we've learned in Chicago never to bet against Dave Duncan and what he can do with reclamation projects. Still, if the Cubs stay healthy it should be an interesting summer on the Northside.

Billy Williams

The Cubs also made a very classy move today when they announced plans to build a statue of Billy Williams at Wrigley, as they have done before with Harry Caray and Ernie Banks. Amazingly, Williams gets lost in the conversation about the greatest Cubs of all-time. He and Banks formed a formidable one-two punch in the Cubs' lineup and made them two of the most feared hitters in the NL. He was a monster in his playing days and has continued to represent himself as a class act and a class person through his association with the Cubs since his retirement. It's great to see an organization continue to work with their living legends to familiarize a whole new generation of Cubs fans to these great players. Congrats, Billy!

Thoughts on Potential Realignment

First, I must admit that I am a rabid opponent of Bud Selig. I think that he has done more during his tenure as Commissioner to harm baseball than anyone since Kennesaw Mountain Landis actively sought to maintain institutional racism in baseball. This is a commissioner who has already realigned divisions once to ensure that the team he once owned and which was still in his family (the Milwaukee Brewers) could have what he viewed as a more reasonable shot to win the World Series. As such, Selig moved the Brewers to the National League Central, which is the reason why we have unbalanced leagues in baseball today. That being said, I was 100% opposed to the Wild Card and interleague play when it was introduced, yet I'll be the first to admit today that they have done much to increase interest in and excitement in the game. I'm sure it's really neat for players who are career AL players to get to play in Wrigley Field and NL lifers to play in Fenway and so on. However, this new realignment is an abomination. From what I understand through what has been written, the major momentum behind the realignment talk comes from those who want to see the Rays succeed in Tampa (i.e. Selig and his cronies). The idea is that smaller market teams like the Rays have no chance to succeed against teams who spend hundreds of millions of dollars per year in order to chase World Series championships. First, my objection to this is on a competitive level. Granted, the Yankees and Red Sox - to name the two most commonly-cited antagonists - do have huge wealth reserves which allow them to sign free agents. My first argument is that free agency signings do not guarantee a World Series championship. Look at the Yankees from 1996 - 2000. While they did have deep pockets and free agent signings were important in their championship runs, the core of those Yankee teams were developed by the Yankees through their farm system. Jeter, Posada, Williams, and Rivera all came up through the Yankee system and have been - more or less - the core of the team ever since. The Florida Marlins in 2003 are another team that won the World Series through player development, creative trades, and free agent signings that strengthened their club. In the last two years, the Phillies have gone to the World Series behind the offensive prowess of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley - two players the Phillies drafted and developed. If the Rays are serious about contending perennially in the AL East, then they should work to develop their scouting and player development. Secondly, the argument that the Rays can't compete in the AL East is ludicrous. The Rays are all but one full season removed from a World Series appearance (2008 against the Phillies). Without spending ungodly amounts of money, they have succeeded in developing elite talent such as Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton. Third, while I must admit I do not follow the negotiations between the players' union and MLB as closely as I should, it seems that if MLB is so concerned about financial balance between clubs then serious, productive negotiations concerning a salary cap should begin. There are many creative, intelligent people who work both for MLBPA and MLB, and if they are honestly concerned about competitive financial balance enough to begin to explore realignment than I believe that a solution could be found which would not upend a system that already seems to be working. One of the greatest things about baseball, which differentiates it from other sports, is that over 162 games there are no flukes. The teams that best develop their talent, collect the missing pieces, and inspire them to perform at the highest possible levels earn their way into the postseason. Divisional realignment to give some teams a perceived "better" chance to gain a postseason berth only rewards organizational mediocrity and outright ineptitude rather than rewarding teams who consistently draft, nurture, and develop major-league talent and augment that talent with prescient free-agent signings.

AL Predictions

I don't care much for the AL (I'll spare you my thoughts on the DH), but here's my concise analysis of the AL divisions:

AL East

1). Yankees - simply too much. Have all the pieces to win #28.
2). Red Sox - solid, solid team. Will battle with the Rays for the Wild Card.
3). Rays - runaway division winners in any other division. Geography sucks.
4). Toronto - can absolutely mash, but pitching won't keep them afloat in tough AL East.
5). Orioles - lots of good young talent: better days are on the horizon.

AL Central

1). Twins - they play the game the right way and always seem to find a way to win. How quickly can they find a substitute for Nathan?
2). Detroit - they'll go as far as their starting rotation will take them. Does Bonderman bounce back?
3). Indians - lots of young talent here. How quickly will they develop?
4). White Sox - no idea where the offense is going to come from this year. The drama between Williams and Guillen is already at mid-season form.
5). Royals - slowly starting to put the right pieces together. Grienke is phenomenal, and Callaspo, Butler, and Gordon give them a good young core.

AL West

1). Angels - best managed team in the AL. Have all the pieces to make a deep postseason run.
2). Seattle - nasty, nasty rotation with Hernandez and Lee at the top. Figgins takes some of the pressure off of Ichiro and they have enough power to give the Angels a run in the West.
3). Texas - Texas makes the AL West similar to the NL East. Very close in talent to the Mariners. Lots of talented young players - how quickly they develop will determine how quickly the Rangers can challenge for the West title.
4). Oakland - some interesting young players, but simply not enough there to compete in a tough division.


Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 NL West

1). Rockies
2). Giants
3). Dodgers
4). Diamondbacks
5). Padres

1). Rockies - The Rockies may be the only team in the NL that can seriously challenge the Phillies both offensively and defensively. The Colorado rotation, once so maligned in Mile High, has become one of the strengths of the team. Jeff Francis, a key to the 2007 World Series run, returns after missing all of 2009. Ubaldo Jimenez returns after a a 15-win 2009 season, also with a sub-4.00 ERA. Aaron Cook has won 27 games the past two years while missing time in 2009 due to injury. The number 4 starter won 16 games last year. Simply put, these Rockies know how to pitch. Offensively this is a diverse, multitalented team. Fowler and Gonzalez give the Rockies speed and versatility in the OF. Barmes, Stewart, and Hawpe provide serious pop while Helton, Tulowitzki, and Hawpe (again) provide average. The bench is deep and talented, and the bullpen - should Houston Street remain healthy - should be one of the better 'pens in the league. This is a team that is healthy after winning 92 games even while dealing with major injuries in 2009.

2). Giants - The Giants boast one of the best one-two pitching punches in the major leagues. This is a team that won 88 games with an offense that brings to mind the teams of the deadball era. Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are brilliant, and should Zito and Wellemeyer return to form and Sanchez continue to develop they have the potential to have the deepest rotation in the majors. However, this is a team that will carry them as far as the offense will allow. Sandoval is the team's most potent threat, and the Giants need DeRosa, Huff, Rowand, and Molina to play up to their potential in order to pose a serious challenge to the Rockies. The bullpen is solid, particularly with Wilson at the closer's spot, but this is a team that needs to find some power hitting to make a deep run in the NL West.

3). Dodgers - It's tough to pick the Dodgers to finish third in the West, particularly after their 95-win regular season and their NLCS run in 2009. The Dodgers have a young, deep lineup and a very talented pitching staff. Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda give the Dodgers three very good young pitchers, and they haven't reached their potential yet. Broxton is simply filthy; along with Marmol of the Cubs, Broxton has some of the nastiest pure stuff in the major leagues. Ethier, Kemp, Martin, and Loney give the Dodgers a young core that will produce for years to come. However, it remains to be seen how much of a distraction the team's front-office domestic dispute will become. If Manny and Furcal return to form this will be a very dangerous team indeed. If the Dodgers can overcome the front-office turmoil, and if they can get the pieces they need at the trading deadline, than the Dodgers could find themselves atop the logjam in the NL West.

4). Diamondbacks - it's hard to know what to think of the D'backs. This is a team that simply has too much talent to go 70 -92, yet that's exactly what they did in 2009. Even with a questionable Brandon Webb (a perennial Cy Young candidate when healthy), Haren, Jackson, and Kennedy should allow the D'backs to compete all year. Offensively, the D'backs are a good mix of righties and lefties and of power and speed. LaRoche, Montero, Reynolds, Young, and Upton provide adequate power, but this is a team that needs to focus on getting on base. The bullpen is adequate but not spectacular. This is a solid team, but not quite up to the caliber of the Colorado/San Francisco/Los Angeles triumvirate.

5). Padres - The Padres are one of the weaker teams in the National League. Outside Gonzalez (who will, in all probability, be shipped elsewhere during the season) and Kouzmanoff, this is an unspectacular team. Headley and Cabrera are good young talents, yet there simply isn't enough around them to make keeping Gonzalez a worthwhile endeavor. Correia had a solid year, but Garland has already complained of shoulder soreness and it remains to be seen how serious this injury is. The Padres simply don't have enough to compete in a stacked NL West, and will likely end up in a distant fifth-place finish.

2010 NL East

1. Phillies
2. Braves/Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nats

1). Phillies - Simply put, this is the best team in the NL, as evidence by their World Series appearance last year, and they may have actually improved during the offseason. The Halladay signing puts them above and beyond the rest of the NL should they stay healthy. Trading Cliff Lee was very questionable, as the Halladay/Lee/Hamels triad would be impossible in a playoff series of whatever length. I don't understand the rationale behind that trade; but in the end the Phils got a pitcher who has dominated the toughest division in baseball - the AL East - over the course of his career. Moving to the NL, where most players have never faced him, Halladay could win 25 games this year. Howard, Utley, Ibanez, Rollins, and Victorino will continue to pace one of the best offenses in the game and it's tough to see anybody outclassing this team in the NL East.

2a and 2b). Braves/Marlins - I struggled with differentiating between these two teams, so I took the coward's way out and tagged them as 2a and 2b. These two teams are very, very close in talent and even the managers are similar (Gonzalez was an understudy of Cox). First, the Braves. This is a Braves team where if the bullpen holds up, they would probably win any other division in the NL except for the NL East. Derek Lowe was awful by his standards last year and still managed to win 15 games. Jurrjens, Hanson, and Hudson match up well with almost any other team in the NL except perhaps the Phillies, Giants, healthy Cubs, and Dodgers. Even Kawakami, the 5th starter, posted a very solid 3.86 ERA in 2009. If Wagner falters, Saito, Moylan, and O'Flaherty could all step in ably. While the Vasquez trade was a head-scratcher, recieving Cabrera in return gives the Braves a solid switch-hitter in the middle of the lineup. For the first time in years, this is a Braves squad that isn't built solely around Chipper Jones. While Jones certainly anchors the lineup, McCann, Cabrera, Glaus, and rookie Heyward stack up to make this a balanced and dangerous lineup. If half of the hyperbole around Heyward comes to fruition, then the Braves may have the next Albert Pujols on their hands. This is a team that could push for 92-93 wins.

2b). Marlins - Finally, after two World Series titles and after developing a generation of fine players, the Marlins have sought to sink firm roots in South Florida. With a new stadium on the horizon in 2012, the Marlins locked up once-in-a-generation talent Hanley Ramirez and have a whole stable of other young players ready for 2010. Offensively, this is a dangerous team. Cantu, Uggla, and Ramirez have all proven to be adept power hitters; while young players such as Maybin, Sanchez, and 2009 Rookie of the Year Coghlan round out the lineup with speed, average, and potential power. The pitching staff, if Nolasco bounces back, can certainly compete with Philadelphia and Atlanta. Josh Johnson (also recently signed long-term) is one of the most underrated starters in the NL, and Anibal Sanchez quietly had a very solid year in 2009 despite a 4-8 W/L record. Volstad and Hensley are unproven (Hensley in particular) yet they have the potential for double-digit wins. Florida's weakness may be its bullpen, as Nunez was hardly lights-out in 2009 and it may be interesting at times even getting the ball to Nunez with a lead. However, with the offense Florida possesses they may not need 4 innings of spotless relief. While they don't have the pitching to compete with Philadelphia, should they stay healthy they could give the Braves a serious challenge for the number 2 spot in the NL East.

4). Mets - The major problem with the Mets is health. Reyes' future has been in doubt all spring, and it appears he will start the season on the DL. Bay, Beltran, and Francoeur give the Mets a formidable outfield, yet offseason drama between the Mets and Beltran could prove to be a major distraction as the year wears on (Beltran will also open the season on the DL). Francoeur very quietly had a solid bounceback year in New York, ironically seeming more at ease in New York than in Atlanta. The Mets desperately need David Wright, their leader, to return to form after having a difficult time adjusting to the new Citi Field. The major weakness of the Mets is their starting pitching. After Santana, who has struggled recently with injuries, the rotation is a mess. Pelphrey, Maine, and Perez were all patently awful in 2009 and Perez has spent the spring facing the same control problems he has battled his entire career. The bullpen before K-Rod is unproven at best, and K-Rod may be called on for several multi-inning saves throughout the year. Bottom line, this is not a team that could challenge the Phillies, Braves, or Marlins unless drastic changes are made.

5). Nats - The Nats have quietly started to move their organization in the right direction. The have the beginnings of a potent offense with the additions of Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham alongside vastly underrated Ryan Zimmerman (.292/33/106 in 2009). Nyjer Morgan is a sparkplug, who batted .307 before injuries sidelined him in 2009. Ivan Rodriguez was a great signing to work with a young pitching staff, in particular with phenom Stephen Strasburg. With Strasburg fitting in alongside Jason Marquis (coming off a career year with Colorado) and the solid John Lannan (3.88 ERA in 33 starts in 2009), the Nats suddenly field a solid pitching staff, should Strasburg come anywhere close to realizing his potential. Bruner and Walker are effective relievers, although the Nats lack a strong LHP to help get the ball to closer Matt Capps. Although the Nats won't challenge this year, the pieces are beginning to fall into place for this young team.

2010 NL Central, continued

Pittsburgh Pirates

This may indeed by the year that the Pittsburgh Pirates climb out of the NL Central cellar. The Pirates have an intriguing core of young players who will all get significant playing time in 2010. Doumit, Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, and Lastings Milledge are all promising players - Doumit and McCutchen in particular, although Jones has impressed as well. However, this is a team that will have to absolutely mash in order to climb out of the cellar. The starting pitching staff is incredibly then, having dealt Tom Gorzellany to the Cubs in 2009. Ross Ohlendorf is arguably the best pitcher here, although Duke, Morton, and Maholm have all shown promise at various times. Dotel is a serviceable closer, although he has shown himself to be better at setting up than at closing in the past. The bullpen leading up to Dotel is questionable at best, although Donnelly and Meek were very good in relatively limited action in 2009.

If the youthful Pirates develop quickly, then this could be a relatively surprising team. They could approach 75-80 wins and send the Astros to the NL Central cellar.


2010 NL Central, continued

Houston Astros

Time is running out on Berkman and the Astros. I feel that this may be the year that, if healthy, Berkman (and perhaps Carlos Lee as well) may be moved to the American League in order to replenish the Houston farm system. This team doesn't have a realistic shot at a division title, despite the young talent present in Pence and Bourne. Lee has been a monster in the NL Central, yet he's 33 years old and his best years may be behind him as well. With no starting pitching behind Wandy Rodriguez and the oft-injured Oswalt, the Astros will struggle to reach the .500 mark yet again in 2010, and may not even reach 2009's 74-88 finish. This is a team that is on its way down, and management has been unable or unwilling to find the pieces necessary to complement Berkman and Lee.

2010 NL Central, continued

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds could be a surprise team in 2010, if it wasn't for the fact that they are managed by Dusty Baker, who is perhaps the worst possible manager a team full of young and promising players could have. With Votto, Bruce, Cueto, the injured Volquez, and the newly-arrived Chapman, the Reds have the nucleus of a potentially powerful team in the NL Central. However, the Reds are also perennial underachievers. Even if Jay Bruce bounces back to have the kind of year he is capable of, I still don't see how this team will win consistently. Harang is on the downslope of his career, as evidenced by his 2009 year (6-14). It's never a good sign when your 'ace' pitcher loses 14 games. Arroyo is the de facto ace of this staff, winning 15 games for a poor team last season. Cueto remains an enigma, Bailey a disappointment, and it remains to be seen if Chapman will make the kind of impact he is capable of or if Dusty Baker will ruin yet another young pitcher. Cordero was excellent in the closer's role last year, but the bullpen will have trouble giving him leads. The bench is thin, and the Reds don't have the resources to compete with the Cubs or Cardinals.

All in all, the Reds could make a run at .500. Baker seems to manage at his best when he has no realistic expectations to win, so perhaps this is the year where the Reds' young players put it all together. That being said, I still feel as if the Reds and Brewers will battle it out for third place in the Central.


2010 NL Central, continued

Milwaukee Brewers

This is a team built around offense, no doubt about it. Fielder and Braun are two of the premier hitters in the game, and could come close to driving in 300 runs between them. The major problem with the Brewers is that after Braun and Fielder the lineup is very thin. Casey McGehee came out of nowhere in 2009 to have a very solid year, but Corey Hart took a sizable step back and the Brewers didn't make much of a splash in free agency. Carlos Gomez is an interesting addition, should he ever figure out how to hit and/or get on base. Weeks hasn't been able to stay on the field or even be productive when he has stayed on the field. The pitching staff is unpredictable. Suppan is already on the DL with a disc problem; Bush and Davis are essentially the same pitcher (although one a LHP and the other a RHP); and Randy Wolf put up a career-high in innings last year with the Dodgers. Gallardo is a stud, and he should win close to 15 games with the offensive firepower Braun and Fielder are capable of producing. Hoffman is Hoffman, but it's difficult to rely on 37-year-old set-up men (Hawkins) who hasn't been all too reliable in the past (his 2009 year notwithstanding).

Simply put, the Brewers will go as far as their pitching can take them. If anybody can get on base before Fielder and Braun, this is a team that can put up crooked numbers in a hurry. However, I don't feel they have the firepower or pitching of either the Cubs or the Cardinals. The Brewers should finish around .500, and could be an outside contender for the wild card.

2010 NL Central, continued

St. Louis Cardinals

Most sportswriters have tagged the Cardinals as runaway favorites in the Central. They are the defending champs, and retained the one piece that they really needed in Holliday as protection for Pujols. However, 2009 was one of those years where nearly everything went right for the Cardinals. They had no major injuries to any of their cornerstone players - Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, and Carpenter all stayed healthy, and still *ONLY* won 91 games. Ninety-one wins is enough to capture a relatively weak NL Central in 2009, but with the Cubs and Brewers both making significant strides, it seems the Cardinals are awfully thin this year. Carpenter is injury-prone, and a serious injury to him puts the Cardinals' season in jeopardy. Wainwright had a fantastic 2009, but beyond him the rotation gets a bit iffy. Kyle Lohse was patently awful in 2009. Garcia is a 27-year-old rookie coming off Tommy John surgery in 2008. Brad Penny was taken behind the woodshed in the AL before righting the ship with the Giants in 2009. Which Brad Penny shows up in 2010 will be a big factor for the Cardinals - can he replace Piniero, who won 15 games for them in 2009? The Cardinals do boast a powerful lineup, and that will certainly be the strength of the 2010 team. However, beyond Felipe Lopez, the Cardinals have a thin bench. Should Pujols or Holliday go down, this is a team in real trouble. The bullpen is also a major question. While Franklin had a fantastic year as closer in 2009, his 2009 stats are so far outside his career averages that I feel 2009 was an outlier. McClellan, Motte, Reyes, and Thompson do not exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing batters, although Reyes and McClellan were very good in 2009.

All things considered, I think the Cardinals are a solid team and a wild-card contender. However, I don't see them being as strong as a healthy Cubs club, nor as deep in the starting pitching. This is still a team capable of winning 80-85 games (perhaps a few more), and definitely challenging for the NL Wild Card.

2010 Division Predictions and Team-By-Team Write-Ups

2010 NL Central

As a Cubs fan, I feel it necessary to start with the NL Central. Following is my anticipated order of finish and a team-by-team write-up will follow that.

1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Milwaukee
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh

Chicago Cubs

Yes, 2009 was a hugely disappointing year for Cubs fans, especially after the incredible regular season run in 2008. Entering 2010, it seems to me that the Cubs have solved most of the problems that plagued them last year. First, the closer situation. Kevin Gregg is gone (finally!), and Marmol was perfect last year once he became the official closer. He has the nastiest stuff in the National League - period. If he remedies the control issues that have plagued him at times, he could easily save 45+ games. Going into the season knowing the job is his, Marmol should be much more comfortable and I see this as an encouraging sign for a fantastic season. Secondly, the much-discussed Milton Bradley is gone. Even without insider access, the body language of the 2009 Cubs was markedly different from the 2008 team, and I attribute much of this to the presence of Bradley. Bradley infuriated Piniella, and became such a distraction that he dragged down much of the rest of the team. Performance-wise, Bradley was equally dismal. The subtraction of Bradley (and the addition of Marlon Byrd, who is by all accounts a fantastic clubhouse guy) bodes well for the Cubs. My third point is injuries. The 2009 Cubs were absolutely decimated by injuries. Piniella was able to field his intended starting lineup for 3 games. While there are no guarantees as far as injuries go, the 2010 Cubs seem to be a much healthier bunch. LHP Ted Lilly's rehab is ahead of schedule and it appears he will return in mid- to late-April. Aramis Ramirez should be available for 150+ games, and he is the key bat in the Cubs' lineup. Sans Ramirez, the onus of run production fell on Derrek Lee, who still had a monster year but it was not good enough to push the Cubs into the playoffs. Soriano is also back to 100%. While he may not be the 40/40 guy he was with Washington, he is still poised for a comeback year, in my opinion. Geovanny Soto is another Cub who appears ready for a bounceback year after a dismal 2009. This spring, Soto returned much lighter and more agile, and hopefully this will help him stay healthy and productive over the 2010 season. The pitching staff also seems to be in good shape. Zambrano, like Soto, showed up in the best shape of his career. Dempster has had a fantastic spring and his two years as a Cubs starter have been excellent. Lilly has been the best Cubs pitcher during his time in the rotation, and he should be ready to win another 14-16 games this year. Carlos Silva, the pitcher acquired for Milton Bradley, seems much more at ease in Chicago and his spring has been very encouraging. Good sinkerballers always bode well in Wrigley, and if Silva recaptures the success he had with the Minnesota Twins he could also win 12-14 games.

My major concerns with the Cubs are two-fold. First, the bullpen is relatively inexperienced. Caridad did well last year after he was called to the Majors, but it remains to be seen how he will hold up over a full season and how he will do once teams get in-depth scouting reports on him. Samardzija needs to return to his 2008 form, although I feel he is best suited in a set-up role with his hard fastball, good slider and adequate split. Hopefully starting this year with the club will help him get situated quicker and gain confidence in his stuff. Marshall gives the Cubs a lot of flexibility out of the pen and has been very solid for the Cubs over the last few years. One potential hurdle in the bullpen is finding a pitcher who can consistently retire left-handers. Grabow is the odd lefty who excels against right-handed batters, so the Cubs would do well to find a LHP to face the Ryan Howards of the NL. By all accounts Jim Hendry is actively searching for bullpen help, so this concern may be alleviated either before or soon after the regular season begins. My second concern is infield depth and bench play. Tyler Colvin has had a magnificent spring, but still has negligible experience against major-league pitching. Xavier Nady is out for probably the first month or so of the season, at least for defensive purposes. Jeff Baker is the super-utility guy. While he has proven himself to be a servicable major-league infielder, he is not a substitute should Lee or Ramirez be sidelined for any significant period of time. Starlin Castro is waiting in the wings, however, and should contribute to the club in 2010.

All this being said, I have a good vibe about the 2010 Cubs. Nearly everything that could go wrong did in 2009, and the Cubs have addressed most of the problems that they could have during the offseason. With healthy starting pitching and the meat of the lineup returning to form, this is a Cubs team that could win 90-95 games. Even with injuries decimating the 2009 Cubs, they still managed to win 83 games and stayed within shouting distance of the Cardinals (who remained extraordinarily healthy all year long) until the final weeks of the season. A healthy Aramis Ramirez adds 50-60 RBIs on to his production from last year, and that translates into crucial wins. Also, as ESPN's Buster Olney noted, the Cubs have an extraordinarily easy schedule to open the season. Should the Cubs take care of business in the first few weeks of the season, they could force the rest of the NL Central to play catch-up throughout the summer.





Welcome!

Hello, and welcome! While this is my first foray into the blogosphere, I hope that I soon prove myself adequate at blogging my favorite thing in the universe - baseball. With this blog, I intend to follow the 2010 Chicago Cubs - my favorite team. While by no means impartial, I hope to offer fair observations about the Cubs and on other topics concerning Major League Baseball. Thanks for following this blog, and check back often!